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Annex 1: Summary of Assumptions and Methodology for Estimates of Long-term Care Costs
Assumptions
Issue Assumption Source/Rationale
Baby boomer generation
life expectancy.
Baby boomers will be through
old age by 2047.
The last baby boomers were born in 1962. We assume that they
will live for an additional 20 years to the age of 85, thereby
providing a time period of 35 years.
Population projections. Annual population growth of
0.09 per cent.
Human Resources and Skills Canada calculations based on
Statistics Canada data. http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-
eng.jsp?iid=33
Population over 65. Percentage of the population
over the age of 65 will
increase from 14.9 per cent in
2012 to 24.5 per cent in 2047.
Human Resources and Skills Canada calculations based on
Statistics Canada data. http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-
eng.jsp?iid=33
Percentage of population
over 65 in long-term care.
7 per cent. Sun Life Financial.
http://www.sunlife.ca/Plan/Health/Long+Term+Care+Insurance+-
+Do+I+need+it?vgnLocale=en_CA
Percentage of population
over 65 using home care.
10 per cent. Canadian Home Care Association report, Access to Quality Health
Care: The Home Care Contribution. April 2011.
Acute care beds used for
long-term care.
7,550.
Dr. Jeffrey Turnbull, President, Canadian Medical Association,
February 2011.
Cost for long-term care
per month.
$3,780. North East LHIN. (2011) HOME First Shifts care of Seniors to
HOME. LHINfo Minute, Northeastern Ontario Health Care Update.
http://www.nelhin.on.ca/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=11258.
Cost of home care per
month.
$1,260. North East LHIN. (2011) HOME First Shifts care of Seniors to
HOME. LHINfo Minute, Northeastern Ontario Health Care Update.
http://www.nelhin.on.ca/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=11258.
Cost of an acute care bed
used for long-term care
per month.
$25,260. North East LHIN. (2011) HOME First Shifts care of Seniors to
HOME. LHINfo Minute, Northeastern Ontario Health Care Update.
http://www.nelhin.on.ca/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=11258.
Inflation rate of long-term
care costs.
3 per cent. Based on inflation for health care services reported by Statistics
Canada. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-
som/l01/cst01/econ161a-eng.htm
Discount rate for NPV
calculation.
4.5 per cent. Based on 30-year Government of Canada bond rates.
Government funding of
Long-term Care
Includes government funding
of long-term care facilities and
home care, plus the cost of
care provided in hospitals.
Canadian Institute for Health Information (National Health
Expenditure Trends, 1975 to 2011, Monitoring the Feasibility of
Reporting Home Care Estimated in National Health Expenditure)
and CLHIA calculations.
